Social Mood Conference  |  Socionomics Foundation

Who Will Win in November? Ask the Stock Market

The stock market is a more powerful presidential reelection indicator than GDP, inflation and the unemployment rate combined. That was the key finding of a 2012 paper by our team at the Socionomics Institute.

The chart below shows what history suggests about the odds in the 2020 race for the White House, along with key levels to watch in the Dow. To get the full story, download our full paper for yourself — FREE — from the Social Science Research Network (


Stay Tuned…

A lot can happen in the market between now and November, so check back for daily chart updates. And, more importantly, read the Institute’s full groundbreaking elections paper and see why it’s the most-downloaded paper on presidential elections in the history of the Social Science Research Network.

Download the paper now on