Financial Markets

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  [Article] A Professor Incorporates Social Mood Into Model for Forecasting Big Events

  Researchers are using oscillations in social mood in their attempt to forecast socioeconomic, geopolitical and natural events around the world.
   
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  [Article] Sarkozy’s Approval Tracks the CAC40

  From the vault: Read Alan Hall’s 2008 Sarkozy analysis.
   
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  [Article] Scientists Use Elliott Wave Concepts to Predict a Greek Bank’s Stock Price

  During a 400-trading-day test period, researchers achieved an overall return of 6.8% while the stock lost more than 60%.
   
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  [Article] Asian Markets Presage the Frequency and Severity of Terrorist Attacks

  When stock prices have been rising for some time, terrorist organizations seem to find it difficult to attract and keep highly talented or highly skilled people, and there are no terrorist attacks. That’s the power of positive social mood.
   
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  [Article] Arabia’s “Days of Rage” Reflect Its Stock Markets

  Consider the following terrorism-related events: Bin Laden’s fatwa announcement, bombings of U.S. embassies in Kenya and Tanzania, the U.S.S. Cole bombing and the attacks on September 2011. What do they have in common? They ALL occurred at lows in Egypt’s Hermes stock index. The article gives you an eye-opening chart and analysis of what the “Arab Spring” says about mood – and the likely path of terrorism — in the Middle East now.
   
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  [Article] Bin Laden Exits Near a Top

  Newsweek’s cover in March 2009 declared that “Radical Islam is a Fact of Life.” Yet less than one year later — in a drastic change of tone — Newsweek’s cover stated, “How Bin Laden Lost the Clash of Civilizations: The Untold Story of the Triumph of Muslim Moderation.” Discover how and why socionomics anticipated this reversal in Islamist extremism – back when the first cover published. Also learn the one fatal error Newsweek made with its predictions.
   
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  [Article] Evaluating a Potential New Sociometer

  The Gallup Healthways Well-Being Index ask respondents about “positive and negative emotions” each day. What’s the preliminary verdict?
   
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  [Article] Murdoch Deal: The End of a Boom?

  Rupert Murdoch’s previous acquisitions have been a key timing signal. What might the latest one — his biggest ever — signify for News Corp’s stock prices and Australia’s ASX?
   
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  [Article] A Socionomic View of War, Stocks and Commodities

  Instead of asking how war affects the economy, stocks or commodities, the socionomist asks, “How do fluctuations in social mood affect the prices of stocks and commodities, the strength of the economy and the likelihood of war?” This non-conventional approach to causality eliminates conflicting assumptions and rationalizations, and provides the simplest explanation of the available data.
   
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  [Article] Did U C New Studies? Tweets N Blogs Predict Equity Prices!!

  Recently published and preliminary work from researchers at four universities indicate that trends in social mood as displayed in social media predict price moves in the stock market. The studies provide important further evidence of the socionomic hypothesis: that changes in states of unconscious social mood precede—because they motivate—changes in the stock market and other social events.