Social Mood Conference  |  Socionomics Foundation

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  • [Article] Saddam Hussein’s Capture

    [Article] Saddam Hussein’s Capture

    So in the face of abundant evidence to the contrary, why does the media (and much of Wall Street) still embrace the myth that news moves markets?

     
  • [Article] Magical Thinking vs. Practical Thinking

    [Article] Magical Thinking vs. Practical Thinking

    The practical thinking that dominates in a bull market carries a “reverence for science.” In a bear market, “magical thinking” prevails.

     
  • [Article] Predicting Economic and Monetary Trends

    [Article] Predicting Economic and Monetary Trends

    How does one apply socionomic techniques to economic forecasting? A socionomist knows that the stock market is a meter of social mood, which is the engine of social progress and regress. Therefore, the current-time change in the stock market is an immensely useful indicator of upcoming economic change.

     
  • [Article] The Timing and Character of Investment Legislation

    [Article] The Timing and Character of Investment Legislation

    Professor Nofsinger reviewed all major investment legislation from the 1920s to present. He found that the character of each new investment law reflected the direction of the stock market prior to its enactment.

     
  • [Article] Challenging the Conventional Assumption About the Presumed Sociological Effect of Terrorist News

    [Article] Challenging the Conventional Assumption About the Presumed Sociological Effect of Terrorist News

    There is probably not one person in a million who would disagree with the conventional view, espoused everywhere, that the attacks of September 11, 2001 and the subsequent deliverance of anthrax-laced letters to individuals shattered the confidence of Americans. Yet that conclusion flies in the face of the facts.

     
  • [Article] Another Example of a Link Between Nature’s Trees and Waves

    [Article] Another Example of a Link Between Nature’s Trees and Waves

    Since plotting an aspect of a stylized tree produces a stylized Elliott wave, we may reiterate the suspicion that plotting aspects of robust fractals in the form of arbora in nature is likely to produce robust fractals called Elliott waves, with all the natural order and variation that we have come to know from their expressions in financial markets.

     
  • [Article] A Socionomic View of Central Bank Causality

    [Article] A Socionomic View of Central Bank Causality

    Both supporters and critics of the Federal Reserve System agree that the first cause of paper money inflation and credit expansion in the U.S. since 1913 is the Fed. How does a socionomist respond to this assertion?

     
  • [Article] The Socionomic Insight vs. The Assumption of Event Causality

    [Article] The Socionomic Insight vs. The Assumption of Event Causality

    The Enron Scandal: A Case in Point. The socionomic insight is that the conventional assumption about the direction of causality between social mood and social action is not only incorrect but the opposite of what actually occurs.

     
  • [Article] Toward a New Understanding of Growth and Recession, Boom and Depression

    [Article] Toward a New Understanding of Growth and Recession, Boom and Depression

    Since the Great Depression, we have had immense improvements in science and technology. Given seven additional decades of data collection and progress in econometric techniques, one might presume that the forecasting tools of macroeconomics have become vastly more effective than their predecessors of 1929. Yet as recently as 1988, some leading economists went on the record about the profession’s lack of progress.

     
  • [Article] The Land of Flint and Steel

    [Article] The Land of Flint and Steel

    Social clashes take myriad forms, but one bellwether rift that has an almost perfect record of erupting into open hostility right at the onset of major downturns is in the Mideast.