Last year, automakers sold 2 million passenger electric vehicles (EVs)—just 2% of global auto sales. But optimistic forecasters look for sales of EVs to outnumber those of gasoline-powered cars in only two decades.
Predictions for electric vehicle demand vary widely. Bloomberg New Energy Finance says that by 2040, total EV stock will reach 548 million vehicles. ExxonMobil predicts only 162 million.
Meanwhile, Chinese EV startup NIO has indefinitely delayed its upcoming electric sedan. And Digital Trends notes that while Tesla “deserves total credit for making EVs a part of the discussion when it comes to the future of the automobile,” the cutting-edge automaker is “doomed.”
MIT professor David Keith says the worst outcome for EVs is that their appeal won’t spread fast enough beyond “techies and greenies” to sustain the growth of the early market.
With experts offering different takes on the future of electric vehicles, it’s important to remember that forecasts are just that: forecasts.
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