Social Mood Conference  |  Socionomics Foundation

By Alan Hall | Excerpted from the September 2016 Socionomist


In the September 1992 issue of The Elliott Wave Theorist, Robert Prechter observed that positive social mood drives expansion in the “size of people’s unit of allegiance.” This is evident in the past 150 years, which have seen an increase in globalization. During this time, boundaries have become more porous and people have become more tolerant of others’ differences. But trends change, and in the September 2016 issue of The Socionomist, Alan Hall looks at the shift in globalization’s popularity that we’ve witnessed in recent years. Read excerpts from his article below.

Social mood regulates our perceptions of other people and our willingness to cooperate with them. Benchmark stock indexes are our best metrics of social mood. When mood trends positively at large degree, stock prices rise and cooperation, inclusion and free trade grow stronger. When mood trends negatively at large degree, stock prices fall and opposition, exclusion and protectionism grow stronger. …

A multi-century trend toward positive social mood impelled a widespread vision of the world as an integrated, inclusive, culturally tolerant marketplace. This “everyone is a potential friend” attitude helped produce the greatest level of global interconnectedness and trading activity in history. The phenomenon earned its own name—“globalization.” Globalization may be history’s largest manifestation of positive social mood. …

At the 2016 Social Mood Conference, econophysicist H. Eugene Stanley pointed out that both physical and social systems display a turbulent mix of behavior when they undergo phase transitions. … Elliott Wave International’s long-term Elliott wave count suggests that a transition from positive to negative social mood is under way at large degree, and globally we’ve observed increasingly negative themes amid strongly mixed social expression. …

Negative expressions include closed borders, trade barriers and sanctions, and overt desires for exclusion, isolation, nationalism and populist and authoritarian leaders. Brexit is a recent example. The trend toward negative social mood is darkening the formerly rosy vision of globalization, and groups of all sizes increasingly find fault with the whole idea. If EWI’s long-term outlook is correct, globalization is due for a large setback. …


 

In the rest of this article Hall provides a 500-year view of globalization and its rise during the past 150 years. He looks at positive mood’s effect on globalization, its shift in popularity, and the breaking wave of de-globalization during the past 16 years. He also discusses what to expect if de-globalization intensifies.

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