By Alan Hall | Excerpted from the October 2015 Socionomist
In this all-too timely article, Alan Hall explains that negative social mood is fueling the war in Syria. Among the several countries engaged in the conflict, most are mired in their own long-term negative social mood trends.
Read an excerpt of Hall’s October 2015 article below.
The Arab Spring’s revolutionary protests, riots and civil wars rode a powerful wave of negative social mood across the Middle East in 2011. Social mood in Syria grew especially grim. Its benchmark stock index fell 52% over the course of the year. As Syrian mood waxed negative, nationwide protests against President Bashar al-Assad’s government met violent crackdowns, and the conflict escalated from protests to armed rebellion to a full-fledged civil war that has now killed a quarter of a million people. By the end of 2012, journalists recognized the seriousness of the wider trend and began calling it the Arab Winter. The conflict has continued to grow. On September 30, 2015, Russia joined the list of countries engaged in the war in Syria, which includes the US, UK, France, Australia, Canada, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Jordan, Bahrain, United Arab Emirates, Iraq, Iran, Morocco and Syria itself. News commentators and political scientists are rushing to assess the gravity of the conflict and its potential to blossom into an even wider international war. Yet they overlook a crucial variable in their analyses—social mood. To fully understand the conflict in Syria and its broader geopolitical implications, you need socionomics.
Figure 1 illustrates the negative social mood that haunts the Syria conflict. The chart plots the MSCI World Stock Index and the benchmark stock indexes of 17 countries that are already involved in the Syria conflict or are likely to become involved. We also list the percentage change in each stock index as measured from its previous high. Only three countries, Turkey, Israel and the United States, have positive percentage changes, and almost all the rest remain mired in long-term corrections. Worse, several of these countries’ currencies have collapsed in value, which means these nominal-value graphs likely understate the depth of their negative social mood trends.
Viewed in this socionomic light, the Syria conflict is likely …
Continue reading this two-page article to discover how the newest player in the Syrian conflict — Russia — is ramping up its offensive in Syria and aligning itself with enemies of the US.
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