Social Mood Conference  |  Socionomics Foundation

By Alan Hall | Excerpted from the July 2014 Socionomist


Alan Hall explains that social mood has regulated US sugar consumption for the past two centuries. Trends toward positive mood impelled people to consume more sugar; trends toward negative mood prompted people to lessen their sugar intake. Here’s an excerpt of the July 2014 report.

What a Chart!

Figure 1 plots US social mood as reflected by the inflation-adjusted Dow Jones Industrial Average versus annual per-capita sugar consumption. The trends in the two data series are remarkably similar, and the timing of most of the important turns is stunningly close. For example, both data series peaked in 1854. Stocks peaked in late 1929, followed by sugar consumption in 1930. Both topped near the positive social mood extreme at the beginning of the 21st century. The two biggest lows in sugar consumption coincided with the two largest wars in US history, also consequences of negative social mood. In each case, sugar consumption slowed or reversed well before the outbreak of the war, so war was not the primary cause of the change in trend.

MoodSugar2012

Figure 1

Sugar consumption went sideways during the negative mood trend that generated the bear market of 1835-1842. Consumption rose with the subsequent bull market and slowed just before the second decline in the larger-degree negative mood trend that preceded the Civil War. Social mood then propelled stocks and sugar consumption net higher into the turn of the 20th century. Sugar consumption continued to rise during the choppy, sideways bear market that surrounded World War I, but the intensely negative mood of the 1930s halted the rise and eventually drove consumption back to 1918 levels. Sugar consumption went net sideways from 1930 until 1985. Similarly, the valuations of the DJIA and S&P 500 as measured by their dividend yields went sideways from 1929 until 1987 (see Figure 6-1 and related discussion in Chapter 6 of Conquer the Crash).

Note how closely sugar consumption tracked the performance of the nominal DJIA from 1966-1982. Social mood then embarked on a major positive trend that took stock prices and sugar consumption well past the 1929 highs. The most persistent decline in sugar consumption is the drop since 1999, which fits EWI’s Elliott wave interpretation of an orthodox top in inflation-adjusted stocks in 2000. Since then, the waning craving for sugar has accompanied weak performance in the Consumer Sentiment Index, persistently low employment and weak recoveries in commodities, real estate and the economy. …

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In the remainder of this eight-page article, author Alan Hall:

  • Illustrates how social mood has also influenced US sugar production
  • Explains why society craves sugar during positive mood periods and rejects sugar during negative mood periods
  • Analyzes the effects of sugar consumption on the incidence of diabetes and obesity
  • And describes how the recent large-degree negative social mood is propelling an anti-sugar movement

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