November 1, 2012
Pundit Dick Morris and RealClearPolitics say Romney will win in a landslide. Gallup finds the majority believe Obama will win. An ABC/Washington Post poll shows Romney up by a point, while CBS/New York Times shows Obama up by a point, and Pew Research shows a tie. If voters choose their favorite candidate like investors choose stocks—by trying to guess what other people will do (sometimes called herding)—polls offer little to go on right now. But how do voters really decide?
The most reliable answer may be found in how people have voted in the past. The Socionomics Institute’s recent paper, “Social Mood, Stock Market Performance and U.S. Presidential Elections,” analyzes all U.S. presidential election bids, something no other researchers have done. The paper is now among SSRN’s top 100 most-downloaded of all time and still rising. Click here to download a copy.
If you look closely, you can see patterns in social mood that help you predict social trends. Learn more with the Socionomics Premier Membership.