October 2, 2012
Society’s appetite for war fluctuates in response to social mood. The story usually goes like this: big declines in stock markets reflect a negative trend in the social mood. People are stunned at first, and then become increasingly defensive, polarized and angry. After enough time in a bear market—particularly after the second major decline—they get mad enough to mobilize and find the money for major war. The war itself—a lagging social expression of mood—often occurs early in the subsequent bull market, when governments can fund it via borrowing and inflation, stealth taxes.
Society seems to be tiring of war just now. NATO is considering speeding its withdrawal from Afghanistan. The Department of Veterans Affairs, as well as CNN and other news outlets report frequently on recent and growing suicide and PTSD trends. Time magazine wrote yesterday of the “money crazed hysteria” of defense budget leaders and how the roughly $2 trillion in Pentagon spending since 2001 actually shrank the Navy and Air Force, increased the age of major equipment, contributed to “technological bloat” and reduced training time for combat forces. These stories and others like them express feelings that our ancestors had at similar positions in the social mood trend. Click here to read more.
If you look closely, you can see patterns in social mood that help you predict social trends. Learn more with the Socionomics Premier Membership.