Social Mood Conference  |  Socionomics Foundation

October 3, 2012

I remember watching the 1988 vice-presidential debate live and thoroughly enjoying the complete smackdown Lloyd Bentsen delivered to Dan Quayle (not a partisan comment; it was just such a great moment). And as long as I move throwable objects out of reach, I may watch tonight’s contest as well, just in case there’s an equally entertaining moment, not because there’s any chance either candidate has specific plans that will matter. We’ve long held that “it’s [NOT] the economy, stupid” that determines whether incumbent Presidents are reelected, it’s social mood, more specifically, as measured by the stock market. (See the Socionomics Institute’s paper on the Social Science Research Network by clicking here.) Suffice it to say, it’s not the debates, either. The best we can hope to get is some memorable entertainment, if we’re lucky.

Read Robert Prechter’s take on what determines election outcomes >>


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