|By Gary Grimes | Excerpted from the January 2012 Socionomist
Originally published under the title “Tiger Update: Not Cuddly Yet”
[Ed: In this update of his January 2010 study, Gary Grimes reports that bull-market golf mega-star Tiger Woods is still struggling to regain his former reputation. Socionomics tells us that Woods will face an uphill battle for as long as the social mood remains negative.
[Here is an excerpt of Grimes’ January 2012 report.]
The past three years have been mostly saber-toothed for professional golfer Tiger Woods. As we demonstrated in January 2010, golf mega-star Woods, like basketball star Michael Jordan before him, is a consummate bull-market performer.1 And, like Jordan, his reputation is shaped by social mood.
These two men were/are heroes of their respective sports, and a 1996 report by Elliott Wave International’s Pete Kendall noted a social preference for heroes in bull markets. Kendall pointed out that the bull-market desire to worship heroes best explained the dizzying heights of Jordan’s popularity at the time.2 Woods also enjoyed massive popularity during the positive mood years of the 1990s and much of the next decade.
… Just two weeks after his non-major Australian Masters win in November 2009, Woods’ sex scandal broke. “[N]egative social moods are a natural chemical for ripening scandals, and the taste for them,” as Prechter explained in The Wave Principle of Human Social Behavior (1999).7 …
What has happened since? Until recently it’s been a Tiger-wreck, as Woods went on a 26-tournament skid. In October 2010, he lost his world number-one ranking. In July 2011, he came under heavy criticism for firing the caddy who guided him to 13 of his 14 major championships. In August 2011, he missed the cut for the PGA championship, only the seventh missed cut of his career on the PGA tour. And in October 2011, he fell out of the Top 50 rankings for the first time in 15 years. …
In this two-page article, author Gary Grimes goes on to analyze the recent decline of the sport of golf itself and concludes with a prediction regarding Tiger Woods’ future popularity.
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Most economists, historians and sociologists
presume that events determine society’s mood. But socionomics hypothesizes
the opposite: that social mood regulates the character of social events. The
events of history—such as investment booms and busts, political events,
macroeconomic trends and even peace and war—are the products of a naturally
occurring pattern of social-mood fluctuation. Such events, therefore, are not
randomly distributed, as is commonly believed, but are in fact probabilistically
predictable. Socionomics also posits that the stock market is the best available
meter of a society’s aggregate mood, that news is irrelevant to social
mood, and that financial and economic decision-making are fundamentally different
in that financial decisions are motivated by the herding impulse while economic
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Wave Principle of Human Social Behavior © 1999, by Robert Prechter;
(2) the introductory documentary History's
Hidden Engine; (3) the video Toward
a New Science of Social Prediction, Prechter’s 2004 speech before
the London School of Economics in which he presents evidence to support his
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