|Robert Prechter at the World Futurist Society, originally published as the Oct. 2010 Socionomist|
The topic of “The Future” has always fascinated humanity. But results consistently show that the practice of Futurism is deeply flawed. What is the error in the usual approach, and is there a better alternative? In July 2010, Robert Prechter addressed the World Future Society’s annual conference in Boston and presented a whole new way for futurists to apply their craft.
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Most economists, historians and sociologists presume that events determine society’s mood. But socionomics hypothesizes the opposite: that social mood determines the character of social events. The events of history—such as investment booms and busts, politics, population, and even peace and war—are the products of a naturally occurring pattern of social-mood fluctuation. Such events, therefore, are not randomly distributed, as is commonly believed, but are in fact probabilistically predictable. Socionomics also posits that the stock market is the best meter of a society’s aggregate mood, that news is irrelevant to social mood, and that financial and economic decision-making are fundamentally different in that financial decisions are motivated by the herding impulse while economic choices are guided by supply and demand. At no time will the Socionomics Institute make specific recommendations about a course of action for any specific person, and at no time may a reader, caller or viewer be justified in inferring that any such advice is intended.