|By Alan Hall | Excerpted from the August 2011 Socionomist
Originally published under the title, “Elliott Waves Discovered in Records of Transatlantic Slave Trade”
[Ed: In one of our most astonishing articles, Alan Hall starts with a revelation: Even something as cold-heartedly economic as the 360-year transatlantic slave trade manifests a clear Elliott wave pattern. Hall then goes on to extend that same pattern forward to forecast an unfortunate rising trend in modern slavery.]
Evidence continues to point to the Wave Principle as the blueprint of social behavior. The “Atlas of the Transatlantic Slave Trade” by David Eltis of Emory University and David Richardson of the University of Hull, England provides an excellent, albeit tragic, example. Their data reveal a textbook Elliott wave pattern in the 360-year rise and fall in the volume of transatlantic slave traffic.
Figure 1 plots ten-year totals of the number of slaves embarking on ships sailing under the flags of about ten countries. The five-up, three-down pattern is unmistakable, a classic Elliott impulse with an extended third wave followed by a three-wave correction that retraced most of the previous advance.
Many slaves died in the horrid conditions during passage, and the Atlas shows that the numbers of slaves who disembarked were significantly lower. Nonetheless, those numbers display the exact same wave structure.
Are These Patterns Finished?
…Is Figure 1 merely a temporary manifestation of the pattern, or will it build into a larger form and prove to be a harbinger of future activity?
Unfortunately, the trend since at least 2000 seems to be up. Prosecutions and traffic estimates are rising, and the number of government, book and media references to human trafficking are spiking higher. A 2008 United Nations report, “Slavery in the Twenty-First Century,” says:
It is estimated that there are over 27 million enslaved persons worldwide, more than double the number of those who were deported in the [entire] 400-year history of the transatlantic slave trade to the Americas.6
In the remainder of his three-page article, author Alan Hall explains the collective thinking behind slave-taking and theorizes as to why such an activity, and others like it, manifest in Elliott patterns. He also provides real-world examples of the rising trend in modern-day slavery. It is a thought-provoking piece for anyone interested in societal behaviors and changing norms. You don’t want to miss it.
Want more content like this?
The Socionomist is the only monthly publication that offers you practical insights on the relationship between social mood, financial markets and cultural trends. Each issue warns you about big societal changes before they can harm you and reveals breakthrough opportunities emerging from trends in society.
(Socionomics Members: Log in for the full article and your complete, exclusive archive.)
Socionomist is a monthly online magazine designed to help
readers see and capitalize on the waves of social mood that contantly occur
throughout the world. It is published by the Socionomics
Institute, Robert R. Prechter, president; Matt Lampert, editor-in-chief;
Alyssa Hayden, editor; Alan Hall and Chuck Thompson, staff writers; Dave Allman
and Pete Kendall, editorial direction; Chuck Thompson, production; Ben Hall,
For subscription matters, contact Customer Care: Call 770-536-0309 (internationally) or 800-336-1618 (within the U.S.). Or email email@example.com.
We are always interested in guest submissions. Please email manuscripts and proposals to Chuck Thompson via firstname.lastname@example.org. Mailing address: P.O. Box 1618, Gainesville, Georgia, 30503, U.S.A. Phone 770-536-0309. Please consult the submission guidelines located at https://secureservercdn.net/220.127.116.11/3d8.988.myftpupload.com/PDF/Socionomist_Submission_Guidelines.pdf.
For our latest offerings: Visit our website, www.socionomics.net, listing BOOKS, DVDs and more.
Correspondence is welcome, but volume of mail often precludes a reply. Whether it is a general inquiry, socionomics commentary or a research idea, you can email us at email@example.com.
Most economists, historians and sociologists
presume that events determine society’s mood. But socionomics hypothesizes
the opposite: that social mood regulates the character of social events. The
events of history—such as investment booms and busts, political events,
macroeconomic trends and even peace and war—are the products of a naturally
occurring pattern of social-mood fluctuation. Such events, therefore, are not
randomly distributed, as is commonly believed, but are in fact probabilistically
predictable. Socionomics also posits that the stock market is the best available
meter of a society’s aggregate mood, that news is irrelevant to social
mood, and that financial and economic decision-making are fundamentally different
in that financial decisions are motivated by the herding impulse while economic
choices are guided by supply and demand. For more information about socionomic
theory, see (1) the text, The
Wave Principle of Human Social Behavior © 1999, by Robert Prechter;
(2) the introductory documentary History's
Hidden Engine; (3) the video Toward
a New Science of Social Prediction, Prechter’s 2004 speech before
the London School of Economics in which he presents evidence to support his
socionomic hypothesis; and (4) the Socionomics Institute’s website, www.socionomics.net.
At no time will the Socionomics Institute make specific recommendations about
a course of action for any specific person, and at no time may a reader, caller
or viewer be justified in inferring that any such advice is intended.
All contents copyright © 2020 Socionomics Institute. All rights reserved. Feel free to quote, cite or review, giving full credit. Typos and other such errors may be corrected after initial posting.