|By Euan Wilson | Excerpted from the July 2011 Socionomist
[Ed: Socionomist Euan Wilson explains that deeply mixed social mood is beginning to produce fractious debate over the bloody global Drug War.
[This timely revisit of Wilson’s article, published two years after the original landmark study, updates the state of the legalization movement in the United States and notes several other key developments.]
In the past two months, events in the U.S.-Mexico Drug War presented exactly the kind of actions we’d expect from a partway-down mood.
- A highly decorated, international commission calls for the U.S. and Mexico to end their War on Drugs.
- The drug agencies of both countries dismiss the recommendations as “misguided.”
- In the very same month, two U.S. congressmen float a bill to end the feds’ involvement in the question of pot’s legality, saying it is an issue for each state to decide.
…Positive social mood tends to yield restrictions on drug use; negative mood impels societies to relax those same restrictions. Our long-term forecast says that during an extended period of falling mood, the increasingly bloody Drug War will become a source of bitter debate in the U.S. and globally. Eventually, citizens will demand that their governments end the war via broad legalization….
Initiative # 1: Report from the Global Commission on Drug Policy
“The global war on drugs has failed with devastating consequences for individuals and societies around the world.”
—The Global Commission on Drug Policy, June 1, 20111
These words are not the rehashings of some blogger or band member at a counterculture music festival. Instead, they form the core argument of the latest report from the Global Commission on Drug Policy. The group boasts several notable members, including former U.N. Secretary General Kofi Annan; Nixon and Reagan cabinet appointee George P. Schultz; former Fed chairman Paul Volcker; former presidents of Mexico, Brazil, and Colombia; billionaire and Virgin chairman Richard Branson; and the prime minister of Greece. …
Read the remainder of this two-page update to discover why the debate over pot legalization is heating up, and what we expect will be the eventual outcome. Also learn more about the responses of U.S. and Mexican drug agencies and how, like windsocks, they reflect the prevailing social mood.
Want more content like this?
The Socionomist is the only monthly publication that offers you practical insights on the relationship between social mood, financial markets and cultural trends. Each issue warns you about big societal changes before they can harm you and reveals breakthrough opportunities emerging from trends in society.
(Socionomics Members: Log in for the full article and your complete, exclusive archive.)
Socionomist is a monthly online magazine designed to help
readers see and capitalize on the waves of social mood that contantly occur
throughout the world. It is published by the Socionomics
Institute, Robert R. Prechter, president; Matt Lampert, editor-in-chief;
Alyssa Hayden, editor; Alan Hall and Chuck Thompson, staff writers; Dave Allman
and Pete Kendall, editorial direction; Chuck Thompson, production; Ben Hall,
For subscription matters, contact Customer Care: Call 770-536-0309 (internationally) or 800-336-1618 (within the U.S.). Or email email@example.com.
We are always interested in guest submissions. Please email manuscripts and proposals to Chuck Thompson via firstname.lastname@example.org. Mailing address: P.O. Box 1618, Gainesville, Georgia, 30503, U.S.A. Phone 770-536-0309. Please consult the submission guidelines located at https://secureservercdn.net/188.8.131.52/3d8.988.myftpupload.com/PDF/Socionomist_Submission_Guidelines.pdf.
For our latest offerings: Visit our website, www.socionomics.net, listing BOOKS, DVDs and more.
Correspondence is welcome, but volume of mail often precludes a reply. Whether it is a general inquiry, socionomics commentary or a research idea, you can email us at email@example.com.
Most economists, historians and sociologists
presume that events determine society’s mood. But socionomics hypothesizes
the opposite: that social mood regulates the character of social events. The
events of history—such as investment booms and busts, political events,
macroeconomic trends and even peace and war—are the products of a naturally
occurring pattern of social-mood fluctuation. Such events, therefore, are not
randomly distributed, as is commonly believed, but are in fact probabilistically
predictable. Socionomics also posits that the stock market is the best available
meter of a society’s aggregate mood, that news is irrelevant to social
mood, and that financial and economic decision-making are fundamentally different
in that financial decisions are motivated by the herding impulse while economic
choices are guided by supply and demand. For more information about socionomic
theory, see (1) the text, The
Wave Principle of Human Social Behavior © 1999, by Robert Prechter;
(2) the introductory documentary History's
Hidden Engine; (3) the video Toward
a New Science of Social Prediction, Prechter’s 2004 speech before
the London School of Economics in which he presents evidence to support his
socionomic hypothesis; and (4) the Socionomics Institute’s website, www.socionomics.net.
At no time will the Socionomics Institute make specific recommendations about
a course of action for any specific person, and at no time may a reader, caller
or viewer be justified in inferring that any such advice is intended.
All contents copyright © 2020 Socionomics Institute. All rights reserved. Feel free to quote, cite or review, giving full credit. Typos and other such errors may be corrected after initial posting.