Social Mood Conference  |  Socionomics Foundation
By Alan Hall & Euan Wilson | Excerpted from the March 2011 Socionomist

 

In this fascinating short article, socionomists Alan Hall and Euan Wilson explain how social mood affects U.S. sugar consumption. Here is a very brief excerpt of the March 2011 piece.

In the September 2004 issue of The Elliott Wave Financial Forecast, Pete Kendall observed slowing sales and declining stock prices for “a wide range of sugary products and caffeine-laced drinks that were refreshment mainstays during the long bull market”:

The socionomic implications … are clear: the sugar rush and caffeine buzz that kept consumers tuned in to the high-energy and social imagery of the bull market are subsiding because they are incompatible with bear market psychology.

Mark Galasiewski expanded on Kendall’s ideas in a report titled, “Some Socionomic Snapshots,” published in the January 2007 issue of The Elliott Wave Theorist. Galasiewski charted a positive correlation between stock prices and per-capita sugar consumption and forecasted further decline:

When the data for 2005 and 2006 are released, we expect they will show that sweetener consumption rebounded somewhat along with the stock market. But after that, as the major bear market that began in 2000 resumes a downward trend, we expect to see the decline in sweetener consumption continue.

As our updated chart shows (Figure 1), that is exactly what happened.

Figure 1

Read the remainder of this two-page article to learn how recent trends in carbonated drink production and drink container sizes also reflect prevailing social mood. Discover how Starbucks catered to the public’s shifting attitude with its introduction of the 916 ml ‘Trenta’ – its largest drink size that holds more than the average human stomach.

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Socionomics InstituteThe Socionomist is a monthly online magazine designed to help readers see and capitalize on the waves of social mood that contantly occur throughout the world. It is published by the Socionomics Institute, Robert R. Prechter, president; Matt Lampert, editor-in-chief; Alyssa Hayden, editor; Alan Hall and Chuck Thompson, staff writers; Dave Allman and Pete Kendall, editorial direction; Chuck Thompson, production; Ben Hall, proofreader.

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Most economists, historians and sociologists presume that events determine society’s mood. But socionomics hypothesizes the opposite: that social mood regulates the character of social events. The events of history—such as investment booms and busts, political events, macroeconomic trends and even peace and war—are the products of a naturally occurring pattern of social-mood fluctuation. Such events, therefore, are not randomly distributed, as is commonly believed, but are in fact probabilistically predictable. Socionomics also posits that the stock market is the best available meter of a society’s aggregate mood, that news is irrelevant to social mood, and that financial and economic decision-making are fundamentally different in that financial decisions are motivated by the herding impulse while economic choices are guided by supply and demand. For more information about socionomic theory, see (1) the text, The Wave Principle of Human Social Behavior © 1999, by Robert Prechter; (2) the introductory documentary History's Hidden Engine; (3) the video Toward a New Science of Social Prediction, Prechter’s 2004 speech before the London School of Economics in which he presents evidence to support his socionomic hypothesis; and (4) the Socionomics Institute’s website, www.socionomics.net. At no time will the Socionomics Institute make specific recommendations about a course of action for any specific person, and at no time may a reader, caller or viewer be justified in inferring that any such advice is intended.

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