Social Mood Conference  |  Socionomics Foundation
Originally published in the January 2011 Socionomist

On December 8, protesters in Haiti set fires and clashed with U.N. peacekeepers in a show of support for Michel “Sweet Micky” Martelly, a carnival singer who finished third in the nation’s November 28 presidential contest amid allegations of election fraud and voter intimidation.

The rise of “joke” candidates like Martelly is a bear market phenomenon, as noted by Steve Hochberg and Pete Kendall in the November 2010 issue of The Elliott Wave Financial Forecast:

In deep bear markets, the urge for non-traditional candidates rises to the level of the absurd, allowing strippers, comedians and other entertainers to become viable candidates. This is happening in Iceland, where comedian Jon Gnarr was elected to Reykjavic’s city council, and in Brazil, where a clown named Tiririca was elected to Congress with more votes than any other candidate.

Former Haitian First Lady Mirlande Manigat won the recent election. She was credited with 31.4 percent of the vote, followed by Jude Celestin, with 22.5 percent, and Martelly, with 21.8 percent. Many regard Celestin to be an extension of current President Rene Preval’s unpopular administration.■


Socionomics InstituteThe Socionomist is a monthly online magazine designed to help readers see and capitalize on the waves of social mood that contantly occur throughout the world. It is published by the Socionomics Institute, Robert R. Prechter, president; Matt Lampert, editor-in-chief; Alyssa Hayden, editor; Alan Hall and Chuck Thompson, staff writers; Dave Allman and Pete Kendall, editorial direction; Chuck Thompson, production; Ben Hall, proofreader.

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Most economists, historians and sociologists presume that events determine society’s mood. But socionomics hypothesizes the opposite: that social mood regulates the character of social events. The events of history—such as investment booms and busts, political events, macroeconomic trends and even peace and war—are the products of a naturally occurring pattern of social-mood fluctuation. Such events, therefore, are not randomly distributed, as is commonly believed, but are in fact probabilistically predictable. Socionomics also posits that the stock market is the best available meter of a society’s aggregate mood, that news is irrelevant to social mood, and that financial and economic decision-making are fundamentally different in that financial decisions are motivated by the herding impulse while economic choices are guided by supply and demand. For more information about socionomic theory, see (1) the text, The Wave Principle of Human Social Behavior © 1999, by Robert Prechter; (2) the introductory documentary History's Hidden Engine; (3) the video Toward a New Science of Social Prediction, Prechter’s 2004 speech before the London School of Economics in which he presents evidence to support his socionomic hypothesis; and (4) the Socionomics Institute’s website, www.socionomics.net. At no time will the Socionomics Institute make specific recommendations about a course of action for any specific person, and at no time may a reader, caller or viewer be justified in inferring that any such advice is intended.

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