Social Mood Conference  |  Socionomics Foundation
Originally published in the Nov. 2010 Socionomist

Last year, 4,136,000 babies were born in the U.S., the lowest number in a century. That’s nearly 200,000 fewer than just two years prior. An AP article says, “The situation is a striking turnabout from 2007, when more babies were born in the United States than any other year in the nation’s history.”

In the September 1999 issue of The Elliott Wave Theorist, Robert Prechter first proposed the relationship between social mood and conceptions. Social mood regulates parents’ optimism about the future and, in turn, whether they should have a baby: “When aggregate feelings of friskiness, daring and confidence wax, people engage in more sexual activity with the aim of having children. When these feelings wane, so does the desire for generating offspring.”

Parents conceived 2007’s record number of babies from about March 2006 to March 2007. The DJIA rose 18 percent during this period to an all-time record high. In contrast, 2009’s record-low-number of babies were conceived from March 2008 to March 2009. This span includes the largest one-year Dow point decline in history—from a DJIA high of 12,820 in April 2008 to a low of 7,063 in February 2009, or 45%.■


Socionomics InstituteThe Socionomist is a monthly online magazine designed to help readers see and capitalize on the waves of social mood that contantly occur throughout the world. It is published by the Socionomics Institute, Robert R. Prechter, president; Matt Lampert, editor-in-chief; Alyssa Hayden, editor; Alan Hall and Chuck Thompson, staff writers; Dave Allman and Pete Kendall, editorial direction; Chuck Thompson, production; Ben Hall, proofreader.

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Most economists, historians and sociologists presume that events determine society’s mood. But socionomics hypothesizes the opposite: that social mood regulates the character of social events. The events of history—such as investment booms and busts, political events, macroeconomic trends and even peace and war—are the products of a naturally occurring pattern of social-mood fluctuation. Such events, therefore, are not randomly distributed, as is commonly believed, but are in fact probabilistically predictable. Socionomics also posits that the stock market is the best available meter of a society’s aggregate mood, that news is irrelevant to social mood, and that financial and economic decision-making are fundamentally different in that financial decisions are motivated by the herding impulse while economic choices are guided by supply and demand. For more information about socionomic theory, see (1) the text, The Wave Principle of Human Social Behavior © 1999, by Robert Prechter; (2) the introductory documentary History's Hidden Engine; (3) the video Toward a New Science of Social Prediction, Prechter’s 2004 speech before the London School of Economics in which he presents evidence to support his socionomic hypothesis; and (4) the Socionomics Institute’s website, www.socionomics.net. At no time will the Socionomics Institute make specific recommendations about a course of action for any specific person, and at no time may a reader, caller or viewer be justified in inferring that any such advice is intended.

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