|Originally published in the Nov. 2010 Socionomist|
Last year, 4,136,000 babies were born in the U.S., the lowest number in a century. That’s nearly 200,000 fewer than just two years prior. An AP article says, “The situation is a striking turnabout from 2007, when more babies were born in the United States than any other year in the nation’s history.”
In the September 1999 issue of The Elliott Wave Theorist, Robert Prechter first proposed the relationship between social mood and conceptions. Social mood regulates parents’ optimism about the future and, in turn, whether they should have a baby: “When aggregate feelings of friskiness, daring and confidence wax, people engage in more sexual activity with the aim of having children. When these feelings wane, so does the desire for generating offspring.”
Parents conceived 2007’s record number of babies from about March 2006 to March 2007. The DJIA rose 18 percent during this period to an all-time record high. In contrast, 2009’s record-low-number of babies were conceived from March 2008 to March 2009. This span includes the largest one-year Dow point decline in history—from a DJIA high of 12,820 in April 2008 to a low of 7,063 in February 2009, or 45%.■
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Most economists, historians and sociologists
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the opposite: that social mood regulates the character of social events. The
events of history—such as investment booms and busts, political events,
macroeconomic trends and even peace and war—are the products of a naturally
occurring pattern of social-mood fluctuation. Such events, therefore, are not
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