|This essay originally appeared in The Socionomist in June 2009.|
You are invited to read the April 2008 Elliott Wave Theorist report, “Elliott Waves Regulate Commodity Prices and Expressions of Environmentalism,” by Alan Hall (free sign-up required) which demonstrated that pro-environmental legislation accompanies commodity bull markets, while commodity bear markets bring environmental accidents and setbacks for the green movement. The report forecast a major top in commodity prices and said, “On October 12, 2007, Al Gore won the Nobel Prize, probably marking the peak of the GW [global warming] movement.”
From its July 2008 all-time-high, the Continuous Commodity Index fell 47 percent and remains about 32 percent below its peak. The following timeline of headlines documents the subsequent environmental accidents and waning desire to save the environment:
Global Warming as Mass Neurosis
—Wall Street Journal, July 1, 2008
Financial crisis tests industry’s green priorities
“Industry has seized on the slowdown to lobby for delayed or watered down regulations….This crisis changes priorities….”
—Financial Times, October 6, 2008
European Nations Seek to Revise Agreement on Emissions Cuts
—New York Times, October 17, 2008
EU agency warns about damage from biofuels
“…may cause adverse effects on the environment….”
—European Voice, November 13, 2008
In bad economy, boat owners abandon their vessels
“Oil, gasoline and sewage from these boats leak into the aquatic environment.”
—AP, November 13, 2008
Tennessee Ash Flood Larger Than Initial Estimate
“…largest environmental disaster of its kind in the United States.” Two weeks after the CCI low.
—New York Times, December 27, 2008
Dark Days for Green Energy
“Installation of wind and solar power is plummeting.”
—New York Times, February 4, 2009
Ethanol, Just Recently a Savior, Is Struggling
“Plants are shutting down virtually every week.”
—New York Times, February 12, 2009
Is global warming passé?
—MarketWatch, February 27, 2009
Increased Number Think Global Warming Is “Exaggerated”
“…record high 41 percent … the highest level in a decade…. [global warming] urgency has stalled.”
—Gallup, March 11, 2009
Tonnes of oil blanket Queensland beaches
“…turned the sand black ‘as far as the eye can see.’”
—ABC, March 12, 2009
The Ethanol Bubble Pops in Iowa
“…a business model built on fantasies….”
—Wall Street Journal, April 18, 2009
Seeking to Save the Planet, With a Thesaurus
“…oil companies, utilities and coal mining concerns… are trying to ‘green’ their images…. global warming [is] last among 20 voter concerns.”
—New York Times, May 2, 2009
Sarkozy in Climate Row Over Reshuffle
“Sarkozy’s desire to appoint an outspoken climate-change sceptic… [is a] terribly bad signal…. tantamount to giving the finger to scientists…. like putting organic farming alongside Chernobyl.”
—May 27, 2009 Financial Times
In History’s Hidden Engine, Robert Prechter describes how the media and entertainment strive to give the public “what they want, when they want it.” ABC has done that with the release of the new animated comedy series, The Goode Family. The May 22 Wall Street Journal article, “Making a Mockery of Being Green,” says the show ridicules a “clan of environmentalists who live by the words ‘What would Al Gore do?’”
Che, the murderous vegan dog, chasing a squirrel
(Still image from video clip, courtesy ABC)
The star of the show may well be the Goode’s comically ravenous vegan dog, Che, who both parodies the green movement and mirrors its frustration.
Fear of shortages drives rising commodity prices and, at large degree, generates social visions of peak oil and “running out of planet.” A completely different social dynamic drives commodity bear markets. In addition, today’s dynamic is complicated by a historically rare, deflationary, positive correlation between stock and commodity prices, a subject for a future issue of The Socionomist.■
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