Social Mood Conference  |  Socionomics Foundation
By Euan Wilson | Excerpted from the May 2009 Socionomist

Originally published under the title, “Sky High? Not in Saudi Arabia or Dubai: Skyscrapers”


[Ed: In this brief article, socionomist Euan Wilson offers powerful evidence of the efficacy of the so-called Skyscraper Index, which states that developers tend to announce massive construction projects at positive social mood peaks and delay or cancel these same projects during the subsequent negative mood phase.

Here is an excerpt of Wilson’s May 2009 article.]

The advance in the stock market from 2002 to 2007 brought fresh announcements of big construction projects around the world. But since the massive bear market resumed in 2007, global social mood has undergone the biggest swing from positive to negative in generations, and those same projects are now experiencing massive cutbacks, delays, controversy and outright cancellation. Ventures in Saudi Arabia and Dubai provide an excellent case study.

Towers_Dubai_Tadawul

Figure 7

The developers of Saudi Arabia’s Mile High Tower have put their project on hold indefinitely. The December 2008 issue of The Elliott Wave Financial Forecast predicted that the Mile High would never get beyond the blueprint phase.

Mile High’s proposed rival, the Nakheel Tower of Dubai, also appears unlikely to get off the ground. In January, its government-backed construction firm announced the project’s shelving for at least one year. While Nakheel assures the press that the project will restart, it offers no reason for the delay, and we doubt the tower will ever see completion. That the company still positions the tower as a future possibility fits our characterization of a bear market as a Slope of Hope. It also confirms that full capitulation to the bearish mood trend still lies ahead…

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As you read Wilson’s article, bear in mind that it first published in 2009 and that positive mood has surged ever since.

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Most economists, historians and sociologists presume that events determine society’s mood. But socionomics hypothesizes the opposite: that social mood regulates the character of social events. The events of history—such as investment booms and busts, political events, macroeconomic trends and even peace and war—are the products of a naturally occurring pattern of social-mood fluctuation. Such events, therefore, are not randomly distributed, as is commonly believed, but are in fact probabilistically predictable. Socionomics also posits that the stock market is the best available meter of a society’s aggregate mood, that news is irrelevant to social mood, and that financial and economic decision-making are fundamentally different in that financial decisions are motivated by the herding impulse while economic choices are guided by supply and demand. For more information about socionomic theory, see (1) the text, The Wave Principle of Human Social Behavior © 1999, by Robert Prechter; (2) the introductory documentary History's Hidden Engine; (3) the video Toward a New Science of Social Prediction, Prechter’s 2004 speech before the London School of Economics in which he presents evidence to support his socionomic hypothesis; and (4) the Socionomics Institute’s website, www.socionomics.net. At no time will the Socionomics Institute make specific recommendations about a course of action for any specific person, and at no time may a reader, caller or viewer be justified in inferring that any such advice is intended.

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