Social Mood Conference  |  Socionomics Foundation
This essay by Mark Galasiewski originally appeared in
The Elliott Wave Theorist in April 2007.

 

James Bond Film Ratings
Popular Culture and the Stock Market” noted that “men are more ‘masculine’ during bull markets, and women more ‘feminine.’” Icons of past bull markets include John Wayne and Marilyn Monroe in the 1950s, and Arnold Schwarzenegger and Madonna in the 1980s. In bear markets the sexual stereotypes that these icons represent fall from favor as society embraces a greater variety of gender roles and identities.
The history of the longest-running film franchise to feature a traditionally male character bears this out. The accompanying chart shows the popularity of James Bond films (as surveyed by IMDB.com) against the inflation-adjusted Dow Jones Industrial Average.

JamesBond2012

(Note: Chart updated from the October 2012 Socionomist)

Ian Fleming created the character of the caddish secret agent in 1952, near the beginning of the postwar bull market, and expanded his popularity through a series of novels. Bond debuted in video in a 1954 U.S. television adaptation of the first novel, Casino Royale. He debuted in film in Dr. No in the United Kingdom in 1962 and in the United States in 1963. His popularity first peaked with the third film in the series, Goldfinger, almost in line with the DJIA in the mid-1960s. The first leg down of the subsequent bear market produced a spoof of the series, also titled Casino Royale (1967). The franchise continued to suffer as the bear market wore on; its ratings bottomed with Never Say Never Again (1983) and A View to A Kill (1985), shortly after the bear market ended in 1982. The popularity of the character returned to favor with the 1980s and 1990s bull market before bottoming again with the stock market in 2002. It reached a new all-time high along with the Dow with 2006’sCasino Royale.

The ratings surge of the most recent film could be a product of the current wave b advance (when sentiment often exceeds that seen at the end of the prior five wave-advance). As long as wave b stays in force, reviews of any new James Bond movies should be relatively favorable; but once the bear market resumes we expect the series to fall from favor again or perhaps to disappear entirely.■


Socionomics InstituteThe Socionomist is a monthly online magazine designed to help readers see and capitalize on the waves of social mood that contantly occur throughout the world. It is published by the Socionomics Institute, Robert R. Prechter, president; Matt Lampert, editor-in-chief; Alyssa Hayden, editor; Alan Hall and Chuck Thompson, staff writers; Dave Allman and Pete Kendall, editorial direction; Chuck Thompson, production; Ben Hall, proofreader.

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Most economists, historians and sociologists presume that events determine society’s mood. But socionomics hypothesizes the opposite: that social mood regulates the character of social events. The events of history—such as investment booms and busts, political events, macroeconomic trends and even peace and war—are the products of a naturally occurring pattern of social-mood fluctuation. Such events, therefore, are not randomly distributed, as is commonly believed, but are in fact probabilistically predictable. Socionomics also posits that the stock market is the best available meter of a society’s aggregate mood, that news is irrelevant to social mood, and that financial and economic decision-making are fundamentally different in that financial decisions are motivated by the herding impulse while economic choices are guided by supply and demand. For more information about socionomic theory, see (1) the text, The Wave Principle of Human Social Behavior © 1999, by Robert Prechter; (2) the introductory documentary History's Hidden Engine; (3) the video Toward a New Science of Social Prediction, Prechter’s 2004 speech before the London School of Economics in which he presents evidence to support his socionomic hypothesis; and (4) the Socionomics Institute’s website, www.socionomics.net. At no time will the Socionomics Institute make specific recommendations about a course of action for any specific person, and at no time may a reader, caller or viewer be justified in inferring that any such advice is intended.

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