|This essay by Mark Galasiewski originally appeared in
The Elliott Wave Theorist in April 2007.
James Bond Film Ratings
“Popular Culture and the Stock Market” noted that “men are more ‘masculine’ during bull markets, and women more ‘feminine.’” Icons of past bull markets include John Wayne and Marilyn Monroe in the 1950s, and Arnold Schwarzenegger and Madonna in the 1980s. In bear markets the sexual stereotypes that these icons represent fall from favor as society embraces a greater variety of gender roles and identities.
The history of the longest-running film franchise to feature a traditionally male character bears this out. The accompanying chart shows the popularity of James Bond films (as surveyed by IMDB.com) against the inflation-adjusted Dow Jones Industrial Average.
(Note: Chart updated from the October 2012 Socionomist)
Ian Fleming created the character of the caddish secret agent in 1952, near the beginning of the postwar bull market, and expanded his popularity through a series of novels. Bond debuted in video in a 1954 U.S. television adaptation of the first novel, Casino Royale. He debuted in film in Dr. No in the United Kingdom in 1962 and in the United States in 1963. His popularity first peaked with the third film in the series, Goldfinger, almost in line with the DJIA in the mid-1960s. The first leg down of the subsequent bear market produced a spoof of the series, also titled Casino Royale (1967). The franchise continued to suffer as the bear market wore on; its ratings bottomed with Never Say Never Again (1983) and A View to A Kill (1985), shortly after the bear market ended in 1982. The popularity of the character returned to favor with the 1980s and 1990s bull market before bottoming again with the stock market in 2002. It reached a new all-time high along with the Dow with 2006’sCasino Royale.
The ratings surge of the most recent film could be a product of the current wave b advance (when sentiment often exceeds that seen at the end of the prior five wave-advance). As long as wave b stays in force, reviews of any new James Bond movies should be relatively favorable; but once the bear market resumes we expect the series to fall from favor again or perhaps to disappear entirely.■
Socionomist is a monthly online magazine designed to help
readers see and capitalize on the waves of social mood that contantly occur
throughout the world. It is published by the Socionomics
Institute, Robert R. Prechter, president; Matt Lampert, editor-in-chief;
Alyssa Hayden, editor; Alan Hall and Chuck Thompson, staff writers; Dave Allman
and Pete Kendall, editorial direction; Chuck Thompson, production; Ben Hall,
For subscription matters, contact Customer Care: Call 770-536-0309 (internationally) or 800-336-1618 (within the U.S.). Or email firstname.lastname@example.org.
We are always interested in guest submissions. Please email manuscripts and proposals to Chuck Thompson via email@example.com. Mailing address: P.O. Box 1618, Gainesville, Georgia, 30503, U.S.A. Phone 770-536-0309. Please consult the submission guidelines located at http://www.socionomics.net/PDF/Socionomist_Submission_Guidelines.pdf.
For our latest offerings: Visit our website, www.socionomics.net, listing BOOKS, DVDs and more.
Correspondence is welcome, but volume of mail often precludes a reply. Whether it is a general inquiry, socionomics commentary or a research idea, you can email us at firstname.lastname@example.org.
Most economists, historians and sociologists
presume that events determine society’s mood. But socionomics hypothesizes
the opposite: that social mood regulates the character of social events. The
events of history—such as investment booms and busts, political events,
macroeconomic trends and even peace and war—are the products of a naturally
occurring pattern of social-mood fluctuation. Such events, therefore, are not
randomly distributed, as is commonly believed, but are in fact probabilistically
predictable. Socionomics also posits that the stock market is the best available
meter of a society’s aggregate mood, that news is irrelevant to social
mood, and that financial and economic decision-making are fundamentally different
in that financial decisions are motivated by the herding impulse while economic
choices are guided by supply and demand. For more information about socionomic
theory, see (1) the text, The
Wave Principle of Human Social Behavior © 1999, by Robert Prechter;
(2) the introductory documentary History's
Hidden Engine; (3) the video Toward
a New Science of Social Prediction, Prechter’s 2004 speech before
the London School of Economics in which he presents evidence to support his
socionomic hypothesis; and (4) the Socionomics Institute’s website, www.socionomics.net.
At no time will the Socionomics Institute make specific recommendations about
a course of action for any specific person, and at no time may a reader, caller
or viewer be justified in inferring that any such advice is intended.
All contents copyright © 2019 Socionomics Institute. All rights reserved. Feel free to quote, cite or review, giving full credit. Typos and other such errors may be corrected after initial posting.