Socionomics Institute


Media Contacts:
Aaron Berstler and Dustin Sadnick
(651) 228-9141

New study: Why Marijuana Will Be Decriminalized
What can foil the War on Drugs? Negative social mood, bear market

GAINESVILLE, Ga. / August 3, 2009 – Marijuana will be decriminalized just as alcohol was in the 1930s, according to a new report from The Socionomics Institute, a research and educational center that studies social behavior as it relates to the financial markets.

"In the case of alcohol, the path from prohibition to decriminalization became littered with corruption and violence as the government waged a failed war on traffickers. We predict a similar fate for the prohibition of marijuana, if not the entire War on Drugs," writes researcher Euan Wilson in his study, The Coming Collapse of a Modern Prohibition, published in the most recent issue of The Socionomist.

Socionomics is a new science that predicts social behavior based on naturally occurring waves of optimism and pessimism. The financial markets are the most accurate recorder of these changes in social mood. Over long time periods, increasingly positive social moods generate bull markets and increasingly negative social moods generate bear markets.

In this case, Wilson finds that social mood governs society's tolerance for recreational drugs. A rising social mood produces prohibition of substances such as alcohol and marijuana; a falling mood produces tolerance and relaxed regulation.

Looking back over 90 years, the study provides four charts of the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the Mexican Bolsa Index to show how bull markets and bear markets correlate with toleration and restriction of marijuana and alcohol, as well as with drug-related violence. For instance, 5,600 people died in the Mexican Drug War last year. Society's disgust at such bloodshed will also lead to marijuana's decriminalization, argues Wilson.

"The stock market is an excellent indicator for how stressed a society is feeling, and 2008 was a rough year for both the Mexican Bolsa Index and cartel foot soldiers alike," he says. He expects the Drug War to turn even more brutally violent when the stock market resumes its predicted fall in a long-term bear market.

The report also says that as a ramped-up War on Drugs leads to more killings in both Mexico and the United States (particularly in parts of California, Arizona, New Mexico and Texas), marijuana will likely be decriminalized after a major low in the stock market.

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For a copy of the study or to arrange an interview with Euan [pronounced 'ewe-un'] Wilson, call Aaron Berstler or Dustin Sadnick at Kohnstamm Communications, 651-228-9141.

About The Socionomics Institute
The Socionomics Institute, based in Gainesville, Ga., studies social mood and its role in driving cultural trends. The Institute’s analysis is published in the monthly research review, The Socionomist. Learn more at www.socionomics.net.