Socionomics Institute

Media Contacts:
Aaron Berstler and Dustin Sadnick
(651) 228-9141


Swine flu: The beginning of a long epidemic season?
Negative social mood and bear markets go hand-in-hand with epidemics

Gainesville, Ga./June 24, 2009 – Earlier this month, the World Health Organization declared swine flu a global pandemic, warning that nations should prepare for a second wave of the virus. Conventional wisdom says that such announcements about disease make people fearful and depressed. New research into a 1,000-year history of epidemics, however, reaches the opposite conclusion: depressed and fearful people are more susceptible to epidemics in the first place.

The research done by Alan Hall, senior research associate of the Socionomics Institute, reveals that negative social psychology is conducive to disease outbreaks. The decline in the stock market is another manifestation of pessimistic and fearful social sentiment that may be in its early stages of development.

“The scale of this mood shift means that the bulk of the largest bear market since 1720 still lies ahead, increasing our risk of an encounter with one of the grim reapers of major social mood decline: epidemic disease,” Hall writes in the Institute’s monthly research review.

The recent rebound in the stock market coincides with the return of a historically high level of complacency about disease, Hall finds. His analysis suggests that an epidemic more deadly than the first wave of swine flu could erupt in the future near a lower low in the stock market.

Managing your own psychology in a stressful social environment is one of the keys to staying healthy, he explains. “Constant anxiety prolongs high levels of stress hormones, which suppress the immune system and raise the risk of depression.”

One tip Hall offers for keeping your head on your shoulders: “Understand that society is entering a period of elevated stress, a season of disease susceptibility. Awareness of this will help you prepare, stay calm and maintain your immunity.”

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For a copy of the study or to arrange an interview with Alan Hall, call Aaron Berstler or Dustin Sadnick at Kohnstamm Communications, 651-228-9141.

About The Socionomics Institute
The Socionomics Institute, based in Gainesville, Ga., studies social mood and its role in driving cultural trends. The Institute’s analysis is published in the monthly research review, The Socionomist. Learn more at www.socionomics.net.