Negative Social Mood Soon To Foster Secessionist Sentiment in the U.S.
GAINESVILLE, Ga. / March 8, 2010 – A study of secessionist activity during
the United States’ 234-year history reveals that the country’s pent-up anger
during negative mood periods is like the pent-up energy prior to an earthquake
– it will find violent release. The question is whether the anger will manifest
as civil unrest, secession or war, writes Alan Hall in the most recent issue
of The Socionomist.
Hall bases his study on socionomics, a new science of social prediction,
which can help people prepare for both good times and bad, depending on
whether social mood is trending positive or negative. Hall’s research included
the development of a “Secessionism Index.” He used the index to track anti-union
sentiment in the United States as it waxed and waned over time.
“We just had 20 years of good times and positive mood,” says Hall, “but
that trend reversed in the 2000s.The current feeling of anger is just the
beginning. It will heat up as the stock market turns down again. Our research
shows that this degree of negative mood always finds violent expression
Hall says that when society’s mood turns deeply negative, it often leads
to skirmishes with other nations. In the absence of an external foe, anger
turns inward in the form of secessionism.
As one manifestation of the downturn in social mood in the United States,
Hall expects secessionist sentiment to increase. Tea Parties are an outlet
for individuals angry with government. Sovereignty movements are attracting
new adherents at the state level. A South Carolina legislator has introduced
a bill to bring back silver and gold coins as legal tender – “a direct challenge
to the Federal Reserve’s monopoly status,” Hall states
Hall’s study is the third Socionomics Institute research project to focus
on how societies express negative mood during bear markets. In the January
Socionomist, analyst Euan Wilson examined the socionomic timing
of civil wars in the United States, Spain and China. In the December Socionomist,
analyst Brian Whitmer forecast that growing negative social mood in Europe
is the biggest threat to peace since World War II and will ultimately threaten
the European Union and its currency, the euro.
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About The Socionomics Institute
The Socionomics Institute, based in Gainesville, Ga., studies social mood
and its role in driving cultural trends. The Institute’s analysis is published
in the monthly research review, The Socionomist. Learn more at
Note to Media: For copies of the studies in the January and February
2010 issues of The Socionomist or to arrange an interview with
Alan Hall or Euan Wilson, contact Alexandra Lienhard at (770) 536-0309, firstname.lastname@example.org.