Media Contacts:
Aaron Berstler
and Dustin Sadnick
Kohnstamm Communications
(651) 228-9141
European Dis-Union: Why the EU is Headed for Divorce
Socionomics Institute sees strong parallels with U.S. Civil War
GAINESVILLE, Ga. / January 8, 2010 – The young European Union is treading
the same path that brought the young United States to a civil war in the
1860s. Thanks to discord sown by a negative social mood, represented by
downtrending financial markets, the EU may find itself heading for a divorce,
concludes Brian Whitmer in a study published in the most recent issue of
The Socionomist.
"Looking at the EU's quick expansion during this past decade,"
says Whitmer, who is also editor of The European Financial Forecast
for Elliott Wave International, "I couldn't help but draw parallels
to the rapid expansion of the United States after its founding. Both unions
appeared to be strong when markets were rising. But once stocks reversed,
the stress of a bear market severed those bonds quickly. War eventually
broke out among the U.S. states, and I believe that an equally perilous
period is coming for the countries of the EU."
His new study for the Socionomics Institute concludes that a bear market
will generate the biggest threat to European peace and solidarity since
World War II.
The study explains how reckless expansions and speculation that took place
during bull markets in the 1840s for the United States and the 2000s for
the EU can turn into periods of discord as the markets turn down. The U.S.
Civil War broke out in 1861 after the Dow Jones Industrial Average bottomed
in 1860. The UK Financial Times All-Share Index and indexes from other EU
nations have now begun their own severe downturns.
Whitmer says that as social mood turns more negative in Europe, political
conflict will erode the ties that have bound EU nations together. The social
unrest that surfaced in Europe around the March 2009 stock market low brought
just a taste of what to expect in the future when old grudges, trade disputes
and financial disagreements will be resurrected. Ultimately, if the bear
market becomes large enough, the countries in the EU may resort to armed
conflict.
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About The Socionomics Institute
The Socionomics Institute, based in Gainesville, Ga., studies social mood
and its role in driving cultural trends. The Institute’s analysis is published
in the monthly research review, The Socionomist. Learn more at
www.socionomics.net.
Note to Media: For a copy of the study in the December 16, 2009,
issue of The Socionomist or to arrange an interview with Brian
Whitmer, call Aaron Berstler or Dustin Sadnick at Kohnstamm Communications,
(651) 228-9141.