Articles from Summit 2011 Speakers

Several speakers from the inaugural Summit have made articles available for further reading. Click on the links below for instant access.

The Financial/Economic Dichotomy in Social Behavioral Dynamics: The Socionomic Perspective
Robert R. Prechter Jr. and Wayne D. Parker

Neoclassical economics does not offer a useful model of finance, because economic and financial behavior have different motivational dynamics. The law of supply and demand operates among rational valuers to produce equilibrium in the marketplace for utilitarian goods and services. The efficient market hypothesis (EMH) is a related model applied to financial markets. The socionomic theory of finance (STF) posits that contextual differences between economics and finance produce different behavior, so that in finance the law of supply and demand is irrelevant, and EMH is inappropriate. In finance, uncertainty about valuations by other homogeneous agents induces unconscious, non-rational herding, which follows endogenously regulated fluctuations in social mood, which in turn determine financial fluctuations. This dynamic produces non-mean-reverting dynamism in financial markets, not equilibrium. Read more.

Twitter Mood Predicts the Stock Market
Johan Bollen, Huina Mao and Xiao-Jun Zeng

Behavioral economics tells us that emotions can profoundly affect individual behavior and decision-making. Does this also apply to societies at large, i.e., can societies experience mood states that affect their collective decision making? By extension is the public mood correlated or even predictive of economic indicators? Here we investigate whether measurements of collective mood states derived from large-scale Twitter feeds are correlated to the value of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) over time. We analyze the text content of daily Twitter feeds by two mood tracking tools, namely OpinionFinder that measures positive vs. negative mood and Google-Profile of Mood States (GPOMS) that measures mood in terms of 6 dimensions (Calm, Alert, Sure, Vital, Kind, and Happy). We cross-validate the resulting mood time series by comparing their ability to detect the public's response to the presidential election and Thanksgiving day in 2008. A Granger causality analysis and a Self-Organizing Fuzzy Neural Network are then used to investigate the hypothesis that public mood states, as measured by the OpinionFinder and GPOMS mood time series, are predictive of changes in DJIA closing values. Our results indicate that the accuracy of DJIA predictions can be significantly improved by the inclusion of specific public mood dimensions but not others. We find an accuracy of 87.6% in predicting the daily up and down changes in the closing values of the DJIA and a reduction of the Mean Average Percentage Error by more than 6%. Read more.

A Literature Review of Social Mood
Kenneth R. Olson

Emotions exert a significant influence on financial behavior. The socionomic hypothesis posits social mood, the collective mood of individuals, as a primary causal variable in financial and social trends. In order to provide a scientific basis for the study of social mood, this article reviews psychological research on major mood-related elements of personality: affect, motivation and personality traits. We examine the structure and functions of these core personality dimensions and discuss research on contagion processes by which individuals' moods spread and manifest in a collective social mood. We also address implications for financial and economic behavior. Social mood is rooted in empirically established personality dimensions that are fundamental to human nature and can influence financial outcomes. Read more.

Melody and Mood: An Update on the Socionomics of Popular Music
Matt Lampert and Euan Wilson

In an update to Robert Prechter’s seminal 1985 essay, Popular Culture and the Stock Market, Matt Lampert and Euan Wilson take the baton and show how social mood influenced music during the past decade and provide a glimpse into likely future trends. Read more.