Culture

• Popular Culture and the Stock Market
  See how cultural trends, such as those in music, movies, fashion, art and politics correlate with trends in social mood as measured by the stock market.

• Stocks and Sex
  Explains how the same social mood forces that drive the stock market also determine demographic trends.

• Social Mood and Automobile Colors
  Learn how the popularity of car colors ebbs and flows with major stock market movements.

• Automobile Performance and the Stock Market (pdf)
  Society is revisiting the late 1960s and early 1970s in more ways than one.

• Aircraft Accidents
  Shows how increases in aircraft accidents have tended to coincide with periods of stock market pessimism.

• Negative Mood-Themed Films
  See how the popularity of Horror, Crime/Gangster, Film Noir and Disaster films rises and falls with the stock market.

• James Bond Film Ratings
  Explains why the popularity of the caddish secret agent has ebbed and flowed with the stock market.

• Euthanasia
  When governments have legalized euthanasia, they have done so near the end of bear markets.

• Anthrax Panic
  Explains how the anthrax attacks of late 2001 are better viewed as products, rather than causes, of the negative social mood of the period.
   
• Saddam Hussein's Capture
  Uses the example of Saddam Hussein's capture in 2003 to make the point that news is a useless tool for those trying to determine the future direction of stock market prices.
   
• Israel and Hezbollah
  Uses the history of violence in the Middle East to show that news is ineffective for determining the short-term direction of stock market prices.
   
• The Land of Flint and Steel
  This essay from June 2001 shows how Middle Eastern violence tends to coincide with long-term stock market tops.  

• Basketball and the Bull Market
  This essay from the late 1990s shows how the history of basketball unfolded according to the rules of the Wave Principle.

• A Historic Extreme in Baseball Emotions
  A top in baseball? This compilation essay illustrates how the Wave Principle can be used to understand the surge in baseball’s popularity in the early 1990s.

• Natural Sweeteners (Sugars & Syrups)
  See how consumption of natural sweeteners in the U.S. has tended to rise and fall with the stock market.

Corporations

• Microsoft
  Shows how knowledge of social mood can help predict the likelihood of government attacks on monopolies.

• Enron
  Explains how the Enron scandal of late 2001 is better viewed as a product, rather than a cause, of the negative mood of the period.

• Brand Names
  See how a crash in the stocks of famous brands signaled a broad decline in social mood in the early 2000s.

Fractals

• The Human Social Experience Forms a Fractal
  Read Bob Prechter's essay on the beauty and power of fractals in nature and the stock markets from the book, The Colours of Infinity.
   
• The Fractal Design of Social Progress
  See how humanity's progress and regress adheres to forms of fractal geometry.
   
• Another Example of a Link Between Nature's Trees and Waves
  The fractal nature of the stock market is a natural phenomenon akin to branching systems such as trees, rivers, blood vessels, etc.
   
• Science is Validating the Concept of the Wave Principle
  Shows how new discoveries in the field of complexity theory, fractal geometry, biology and psychology may support the view that fractal geometry governs the stock market and other social trends.
   
• Science is Revealing the Mechanism of the Wave Principle
  Shows how human biology, specifically an impulse to herd, causes social trends to unfold in waves.
   
• Elliott Waves, Fibonacci, and Statistics (pdf file)
  Robert Prechter responds to Batchelor & Ramyar's "Magic Numbers in the Dow"
  
  
• A Track Record of Wave Principle Application to the Stock Market – Part I
  Read how financial analysts have used the Wave Principle since the 1930s to forecast the stock market, socionomists’ measure of social mood.
  
  
• A Track Record of Wave Principle Application to the Stock Market – Part II
  
  
• Does the Wave Principle Subsume All Valid Technical “Chart Patterns”? - Part I
  Learn why all known financial chart patterns are merely aspects of Elliott Waves.
  
  
• Does the Wave Principle Subsume All Valid Technical “Chart Patterns”? - Part II
  
  
• Does the Wave Principle Subsume All Valid Technical “Chart Patterns” - Part III
  

 

 

Politics

• Women in Politics
  The first woman in every major U.S. political office has made her breakthrough near the end of a major bear market.

• Nuclear Tests
  See how nuclear tests worldwide have ebbed and flowed with the Dow Jones Industrial Average.
  

Macroeconomics

• Predicting Economic and Monetary Trends
  Shows how you can use patterns in the stock market to predict macroeconomic trends.
   
• Toward a New Understanding of Growth and Recession
  This essay by a Chilean professor of Economics and former visiting professor at Harvard University, Hernán Cortes Douglas, argues that conventional economic theory should be reconstructed upon socionomic principles.
  
  
• Debt, Markets and Depression (pdf)
  Professor Douglas presented this paper to the Second Eurosystem and Latin American Central Banks Workshop at Lisbon, Portugal, in October, 2004.

Legislation

• Socionomic View of Central Bank Causality
  Explains how credit expansion is a function of a society's position in its long-term wave cycle.
   
• The Timing and Character of Investment Legislation
  This essay by a professor of Finance at Washington State University, John Nofsinger, Ph.D., explains how social mood determines when governments pass expansive and restrictive investment legislation.

Social Causality

• The Stock Market Is Not Physics – Part I
  In the world of physics, action is followed by reaction. Most financial analysts, economists, historians, sociologists and futurists believe that society works the same way. These two essays propose that the most certain aspect of social history is dramatic, self-induced change, which makes extrapolation under the physics paradigm an ill-suited approach for accurately predicting social trends.
  
  
• The Stock Market Is Not Physics – Part II
  
  
• Sociometrics
  Defines the main differences between socionomics and the Standard Social Science Model: the perceived causality between social events and their causes.
  
  
• Social Mood Shapes Aggregate Opinion Regardless of Data
  Learn why fears of deflation from 1997-2005 ebbed and flowed not with the CPI—but with the stock market.