Social Mood Conference  |  Socionomics Foundation

By Alan Hall | Excerpted from the November 2017 Socionomist


 

The Wave Principle of Human Social Behavior (1999) said that negative mood emerges in political movements, such as secession and independence. The February 2010 issue of The Socionomist noted that major social-mood declines “trigger anger that is expressed in social division, disillusionment with government, civil unrest, and, at large enough degrees, war.” Numerous secession movements are underway today, and the November 2017 Socionomist analyzes them from a socionomic perspective. Following are some excerpts from that issue:

Secession is spreading like a weed. Recent columns in The Guardian declared, “Anyone who thinks Balkanisation was a 19th-century phenomenon is a fool,” and, “Across the world, people yearn to govern themselves.” Some of today’s strongest independence movements are unfolding in Europe, where negative mood is impelling impulses to secede and separate. …

At least six European countries, Denmark, Belgium, France, Spain, the UK and Italy, have secession movements underway. Figure 1 plots five of their primary stock indexes valued in ounces of gold denominated in each country’s respective currency. The indexes have all declined 68%+ since their all-time highs near the turn of the century. Spain’s has declined 78%. Let’s briefly survey these countries’ secession movements and then take a closer look at events in Spain, where separatist impulses are especially strong. …

Spain is the site of perhaps the most visible secession movement on today’s separatism roster. Leaders of Catalonia, the “autonomous” community in northeastern Spain that includes Barcelona, have increasingly expressed the desire to secede from the Kingdom of Spain—a move that one protestor dubbed “Catxit.” …

The October European Financial Forecast noted, “Like Brexit before it, the Catalan vote seemed to come about suddenly. But the modern-day movement has actually been building since the early 2000s. …” The first signs of Catalonia’s burgeoning separatism appeared in November 2003, just after the first big decline in IBEX/gold, when a Catalan pro-independence coalition of Socialists ousted the 23-year-incumbent center-right moderate nationalist parliament. …

We see no common enemies on the horizon for Spain and Catalonia, which suggests secessionist expressions could spiral into more serious civil conflict. Just as with Brexit, clarity about Catalonia’s future may be far off. For now, the community is polarized, in keeping with Spain’s mood trend. …


 

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