Social Mood Conference  |  Socionomics Foundation

By Alan Hall | Excerpted from the July 2017 Socionomist


 

In the March 1994 issue of The Elliott Wave Theorist, Robert Prechter said that disease sometimes plays a “prominent role” during major corrections in the stock market. He noted that some large-degree corrections include epidemics and that even larger ones may include pandemics. In the May 2009 issue of The Socionomist, Alan Hall pointed out that major epidemics occur when social mood is predominantly negative. What role has social mood played in the highly publicized Zika epidemic that has ravaged Brazil? Alan Hall offers an answer in the July 2017 issue of The Socionomist. Following are excerpts from his article.

The Zika epidemic is mosquito-borne and seasonal, yet it exhibits the same socionomic causality as many other infectious disease epidemics we have studied. Much as the stock market is a leading indicator for political and economic news (see Chapter 8 of The Socionomic Theory of Finance), it is also a leading indicator for risks to societal health. …

Negative social mood is the ultimate cause of aggregate declines in health, yet negative mood produces many results that themselves become proximate causes for disease. Among them are widespread pessimism, unemployment, homelessness, economic hardship, chronic financial problems, hunger, social unrest and poor hygiene. …

In this update, we assess social mood, social expressions and the prevalence of the Zika virus in Brazil, Puerto Rico and the United States. We also review other mood-driven health risks in the Democratic Republic of Congo and Venezuela. …

Figure 1 provides a textbook example of how fluctuations in social mood regulate both the severity of infectious disease and the fear surrounding it. Brazil’s 2008-2016 trend toward negative mood increased pessimism and fear, which reduced society’s disease immunity. Peak fear and Zika cases surrounded the market low in early 2016. …

Though the Bovespa Index has rallied in recent months, it remains below its 2008 high, and lingering manifestations of the previous negative mood trend remain evident. President Temer’s recent bribery scandal is just one example, as is the nationwide workers strike in late April that temporarily shut down the country’s major cities. There are also signs that mood is shifting toward the negative in the nearer-term, as the Bovespa has slipped 10% below its February high. …


 

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