Social Mood Conference  |  Socionomics Foundation

By Chuck Thompson | Excerpted from the May 2017 Socionomist


 

In his July 2009 article, “The Coming Collapse of a Modern Prohibition,” Euan Wilson said that positive mood was driving a bloody drug war in Mexico, where cartels were “fighting modern versions of the 1920s North Side-South Side Chicago gang wars.” The January 2011 Socionomist said Mexico’s drug war had claimed some 30,000 lives across four years, with 2010 alone accounting for some 15,000 drug-related violent deaths. Today that toll has reached nearly 100,000 dead. In the May 2017 issue of The Socionomist, Chuck Thompson takes an updated look at the Mexican drug war and where it might lead in the future. Following are excerpts from his article.

While it may seem counterintuitive at times, not all manifestations of positive social mood trends reflect, as Elvis Costello sang, “peace, love and understanding.” One prominent example is the regulation of certain recreational substances. In the July 2009 issue of The Socionomist, Euan Wilson noted that positive social mood “produces prohibition of substances such as alcohol and marijuana.” A prime example is America’s own venture into the prohibition of alcohol, which was enforced through the bull market of the “Roaring 1920s” before being abandoned during the Great Depression. …

Today, positive mood is fueling Mexico’s increasingly aggressive war on drugs, which has ensnared the military, drug traffickers, citizens and officials alike and resulted in a rash of dire consequences. …

Mexico’s drug war began amid a positive mood trend in December 2006, shortly after the election of President Felipe Calderón, who sent 6,500 troops to fight drug traffickers in his home state of Michoacán. (See Figure 1.) Two months later, 20,000 troops and federal police were battling drug cartels throughout Mexico. …

Figure 1

In March 2007, Calderón sought money for his drug war from the U.S., where social mood was also trending positively. The U.S. gave him $37 billion in aid, but it didn’t end there. In October, the U.S. and Mexico announced the Mérida Initiative, a U.S.-backed assistance plan that has since provided $2.6 billion in drug war aid to Mexico. …

Calderón’s successor, Enrique Peña Nieto, has continued the drug war after taking office in December 2012. Currently, some 50,000 troops are assigned to Mexico’s ongoing effort to shut down the cartels. Mexico’s drug cartels are not only at war with Mexican troops but also with each other. …


 

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