Social Mood Conference  |  Socionomics Foundation

By Chuck Thompson and Alan Hall | Excerpted from the April 2016  Socionomist


The nation of Brazil is in turmoil, and the timing couldn’t be worse. The country will host the 2016 Summer Olympics in less than four months. In the April 2016 issue of The Socionomist, Chuck Thompson and Alan Hall show the role that social mood is playing in Brazil’s upheaval. Read excerpts from their article below.

A five-year trend toward negative social mood is wreaking political, financial and social havoc on Brazil, the host of the Summer Olympic Games in August. A rout in the stock market, the country’s worst recession in a generation, scandals, presidential impeachment and even an epidemic—Brazil has it all. … The nation’s president, Dilma Rousseff, has become a “textbook study of the political and economic consequences of negative mood on formerly adored public figures.” …

Brazil_protest_2016_March1Rousseff was elected with 56% of the vote to her first four-year term as Brazil’s president in October 2010, just days before a major top in the Sao Paulo Stock Exchange. … Since then, the Sao Paulo Stock Exchange has trended lower and is now down 27%. … Brazil is in the midst of its longest economic downturn since the 1930s. …

While Rousseff defied the odds in 2014 to win re-election in the country’s closest race since 1989, her popularity in her second term has plummeted. … Negative mood is a “natural chemical for ripening scandals, and the taste for them,” as Peter Kendall observed in the February 1997 issue of The Elliott Wave Theorist. In October, Brazil’s highest electoral court began investigating allegations that Rousseff financed her 2014 campaign with donations from companies involved in a corruption scandal. … In addition, a committee in Brazil’s lower house investigated Rousseff on charges of using state banks to fill a budget shortfall—a procedure prohibited by the country’s fiscal responsibility law. …

On April 17 a majority of lower house members voted to impeach Rousseff. If the Senate accepts the impeachment case, Rousseff would step down temporarily until her fate is decided, and Vice President Michel Temer would assume the presidency. At least, that would be the normal procedure. But a judge in Brazil’s Supreme Federal Court ruled that the legislature must also begin impeachment proceedings against Temer, who faces the same budget-fixing charges as Rousseff. … The country is also in the midst of a massive scandal known as Operação Lava Jato (Operation Car Wash), which involves allegations that construction companies obtained lucrative contracts by paying large kickbacks to politicians and to executives of Petrobras, Brazil’s state-owned oil company. …

The country’s public health situation is also in turmoil. …


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In the remainder of this article, Thompson and Hall consider how many Brazilians are at risk from the Zika virus, and its link to such diseases as Guillain-Barré syndrome.

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