Social Mood Conference  |  Socionomics Foundation
By Chuck Thompson
Originally published in the March 2012 Socionomist

Cycle, Supercycle and Grand Supercycle degree waves are in negative trends while Primary and Intermediate waves near a top. In this mixed-mood environment, a poll finds that people are happier even as bank creation reaches zero and legislators of one U.S. state noodle how they might approach secession—under certain circumstances.

OPTIMISM

Results from an Ipsos poll of 19,000 adults in 24 countries indicate the world’s citizens are happier today than they were in 2007—the last time the poll was taken and just before the financial crisis began.

In the recent poll, 77 percent of respondents described themselves as “happy,” an increase of three points compared to five years ago. Twenty-two percent said they were “very happy,” an increase of two points during the same period. This fits socionomic theory, since stocks have risen for three years.

BANKING

Last year was the first since at least 1984 that no de novo banks were created in the U.S., according to analysis by the Financial Times. De novo banks are freshly chartered institutions that are not the result of a takeover by another bank.

In addition, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation reported only three new banking charters —all reconstitutions of failed banks—for all of 2011, the lowest annual number since the FDIC began keeping records in 1934.1

“The banking system began deflating in 2006,” Robert Prechter wrote in the October 2011 issue of The Elliott Wave Theorist. “All inflationary activity since then has come from two authoritarian institutions: the Fed and the government.”2

According to the Financial Times, the number of de novo banks has been trending down for a few years.

Last year, operating revenue for the banking industry was down for only the second time since 1938, pushing banking statistics back to levels not seen since the Great Depression.

SECESSION

In the February 2010 issue of The Socionomist, Alan Hall noted that social-mood-induced anger, when it exists, has to emerge somewhere. It can manifest in external war, internal secessionism, civil war or all of them. He said the actions spring from the negative-mood impulse to polarize and separate.3

Last month, the desire to secede manifested in Wyoming, where legislators voted on launching a study into what their state should do if there were a complete economic or political collapse in the United States.

House Bill 85, if it had passed, would have created a state-run task force to consider starting an alternative Wyoming currency, initiating a state military draft, raising a standing army and acquiring strike aircraft and an aircraft carrier (look it up if you don’t believe us).4 In a February 28 vote, the Wyoming House defeated the bill, but the vote was close: 30-27.

During the past year, there have been other manifestations of the desire to secede. Political liberals in southern Arizona launched a petition drive seeking support for a proposal to divide their state in two. They have until July 5 of this year to collect the 48,000 signatures needed to add their proposal to the November ballot. The split-off area would comprise all of Arizona’s Pima County; for now, the proposed 51st state is called “Baja Arizona.”5

Also last year, Jeff Stone, supervisor of Riverside County, proposed that his county and 12 others secede from California.6 And the impulse to break away is not isolated to the U.S.: In Scotland, First Minister Alex Salmond announced plans to hold a referendum in fall 2014 on leaving the United Kingdom.7

In the August 2001 issue of The Elliott Wave Theorist, Robert Prechter predicted that as negative social mood increases, states will increasingly desire to secede and countries will break up.8 In his February 2010 article on secessionism, Hall forecast that secessionist sentiment would grow steadily in the near term before becoming a major force when Grand Supercycle wave IV enters its second major sub-decline.■

 


CITATIONS

1 Alloway, T. (2012, March 4). First year in decades without a new US bank. Financial Times. Retrieved from http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/df4c2dd8-63af-11e1-b85b-00144feabdc0.html#axzz1odohAyyI

2 Prechter, R. (2011, October). The last-resort inflation engines may have stopped. The Elliott Wave Theorist.

3 Hall, A. (2010, February). A survey of U.S. secessionism: Negative social mood will vent — but where? The Socionomist.

4 Pelzer, J. (2012, February 24). Wyoming House advances doomsday bill. Casper Star-Tribune. Retrieved from http://trib.com/news/state-and-regional/govt-and-politics/wyoming-house-advances-doomsday-bill/article_af6e1b2b-0ca4-553f-85e9-92c0f58c00bd.html

5 Poole, B. (2011, May 10). Liberals in southern Arizona seek to form new state. Reuters. Retrieved from http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/05/10/us-arizona-secession-idUSTRE74931P20110510

6 Official calls for Riverside, 12 other counties to secede from California. (2011, July 1). CBS Los Angeles. Retrieved from http://losangeles.cbslocal.com/2011/07/01/official-calls-for-riverside-12-other-counties-to-secede-from-california/

7 Scotland’s ‘explosive’ push to secede from the U.K. (2012, January 13). The Week. Retrieved from http://theweek.com/article/index/223343/scotlands-explosive-push-to-secede-from-the-uk

8 Prechter, R. (2001, August). On the cresting tidal wave: A q&a with Robert Prechter. The Elliott Wave Theorist.


Socionomics InstituteThe Socionomist is a monthly online magazine designed to help readers see and capitalize on the waves of social mood that contantly occur throughout the world. It is published by the Socionomics Institute, Robert R. Prechter, president; Matt Lampert, editor-in-chief; Alyssa Hayden, editor; Alan Hall and Chuck Thompson, staff writers; Dave Allman and Pete Kendall, editorial direction; Chuck Thompson, production; Ben Hall, proofreader.

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Most economists, historians and sociologists presume that events determine society’s mood. But socionomics hypothesizes the opposite: that social mood determines the character of social events. The events of history—such as investment booms and busts, political events, macroeconomic trends and even peace and war—are the products of a naturally occurring pattern of social-mood fluctuation. Such events, therefore, are not randomly distributed, as is commonly believed, but are in fact probabilistically predictable. Socionomics also posits that the stock market is the best available meter of a society’s aggregate mood, that news is irrelevant to social mood, and that financial and economic decision-making are fundamentally different in that financial decisions are motivated by the herding impulse while economic choices are guided by supply and demand. For more information about socionomic theory, see (1) the text, The Wave Principle of Human Social Behavior © 1999, by Robert Prechter; (2) the introductory documentary History's Hidden Engine; (3) the video Toward a New Science of Social Prediction, Prechter’s 2004 speech before the London School of Economics in which he presents evidence to support his socionomic hypothesis; and (4) the Socionomics Institute’s website, www.socionomics.net. At no time will the Socionomics Institute make specific recommendations about a course of action for any specific person, and at no time may a reader, caller or viewer be justified in inferring that any such advice is intended.

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