Social Mood Conference  |  Socionomics Foundation
By Alan Hall | Excerpted from the August 2011 Socionomist

Originally published under the title, “Elliott Waves Discovered in Records of Transatlantic Slave Trade”


[Ed: In one of our most astonishing articles, Alan Hall starts with a revelation: Even something as cold-heartedly economic as the 360-year transatlantic slave trade manifests a clear Elliott wave pattern. Hall then goes on to extend that same pattern forward to forecast an unfortunate rising trend in modern slavery.]

Evidence continues to point to the Wave Principle as the blueprint of social behavior. The “Atlas of the Transatlantic Slave Trade” by David Eltis of Emory University and David Richardson of the University of Hull, England provides an excellent, albeit tragic, example. Their data reveal a textbook Elliott wave pattern in the 360-year rise and fall in the volume of transatlantic slave traffic.

Trans-Atlantic Slave Embarkations

Figure 1

Figure 1 plots ten-year totals of the number of slaves embarking on ships sailing under the flags of about ten countries. The five-up, three-down pattern is unmistakable, a classic Elliott impulse with an extended third wave followed by a three-wave correction that retraced most of the previous advance.

Many slaves died in the horrid conditions during passage, and the Atlas shows that the numbers of slaves who disembarked were significantly lower. Nonetheless, those numbers display the exact same wave structure.

Are These Patterns Finished?
…Is Figure 1 merely a temporary manifestation of the pattern, or will it build into a larger form and prove to be a harbinger of future activity?

Unfortunately, the trend since at least 2000 seems to be up. Prosecutions and traffic estimates are rising, and the number of government, book and media references to human trafficking are spiking higher. A 2008 United Nations report, “Slavery in the Twenty-First Century,” says:

It is estimated that there are over 27 million enslaved persons worldwide, more than double the number of those who were deported in the [entire] 400-year history of the transatlantic slave trade to the Americas.6

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In the remainder of his three-page article, author Alan Hall explains the collective thinking behind slave-taking and theorizes as to why such an activity, and others like it, manifest in Elliott patterns. He also provides real-world examples of the rising trend in modern-day slavery. It is a thought-provoking piece for anyone interested in societal behaviors and changing norms. You don’t want to miss it.

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Socionomics InstituteThe Socionomist is a monthly online magazine designed to help readers see and capitalize on the waves of social mood that contantly occur throughout the world. It is published by the Socionomics Institute, Robert R. Prechter, president; Matt Lampert, editor-in-chief; Alyssa Hayden, editor; Alan Hall and Chuck Thompson, staff writers; Dave Allman and Pete Kendall, editorial direction; Chuck Thompson, production; Ben Hall, proofreader.

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Most economists, historians and sociologists presume that events determine society’s mood. But socionomics hypothesizes the opposite: that social mood determines the character of social events. The events of history—such as investment booms and busts, political events, macroeconomic trends and even peace and war—are the products of a naturally occurring pattern of social-mood fluctuation. Such events, therefore, are not randomly distributed, as is commonly believed, but are in fact probabilistically predictable. Socionomics also posits that the stock market is the best available meter of a society’s aggregate mood, that news is irrelevant to social mood, and that financial and economic decision-making are fundamentally different in that financial decisions are motivated by the herding impulse while economic choices are guided by supply and demand. For more information about socionomic theory, see (1) the text, The Wave Principle of Human Social Behavior © 1999, by Robert Prechter; (2) the introductory documentary History's Hidden Engine; (3) the video Toward a New Science of Social Prediction, Prechter’s 2004 speech before the London School of Economics in which he presents evidence to support his socionomic hypothesis; and (4) the Socionomics Institute’s website, www.socionomics.net. At no time will the Socionomics Institute make specific recommendations about a course of action for any specific person, and at no time may a reader, caller or viewer be justified in inferring that any such advice is intended.

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