|By Alan Hall | Excerpted from the April and May 2010 Socionomist
Originally published under the title, “Authoritarianism: The Wave Principle Governs Fear and The Fear Social Desire to Submit.”
[Ed: In this, our most-read article, socionomist Alan Hall explains that negative mood engenders strong authoritarian and anti-authoritarian impulses. He details what to expect in this regard during deepening negative mood, including heated battles between increasingly polarized proponents of liberty and control. The following excerpt from the April / May 2010 article showcases some of the insights.]
Bear Markets Encourage Authoritarianism
Figure 2 shows that over the past 300 years, major bear markets hosted most of the notable examples of authoritarianism. There are incidents of authoritarianism in bull markets, but they are fewer and smaller. Our Authoritarian Survey chart plots the Dow against the appearance and activities of such tyrants as Joseph Stalin, Adolf Hitler, Mao Ze Dong, Pol Pot and Saddam Hussein.
… Resurging Authoritarianism Today
Another bear market began in 2000, and authoritarianism is waxing along with it. … Both Russia and China have histories of extreme authoritarianism, and both countries are now attempting to recast democracy as a blend of free markets and authoritarian politics. British historian Timothy Garton Ash calls authoritarian capitalism “the biggest potential ideological competitor to liberal democratic capitalism since the end of communism.” A June 2009 Foreign Policy Magazine article, “Authoritarianism’s New Wave,” describes the countries’ impressive new global media tactics:
Today’s authoritarian regimes are undermining democracy in updated, sophisticated, and lavishly funded ways … . The Kremlin has launched Russia Today, a multimillion-dollar television venture … . Beijing has reportedly set aside at least $6 billion for these media expansion efforts.11
…The Authoritarian Progression
Based on the evolution of authoritarian regimes in the past and what we observe in society today, it is logical to expect the progression from social fear to authoritarianism to unfold in roughly the following fashion:
A general bearish fear of the future causes people to coalesce into groups with polarized views on the authoritarian/anti-authoritarian issue. These disparate groups exclude all messages that contradict their opinions. … Leaders encourage their groups to see other groups as threats; actions escalate in a quid pro quo.
As society’s consensus diffuses into fearful discord, authoritarianism gains footholds. The majority of people see each authoritarian step as merely temporary, necessary inconveniences—small freedoms traded for promises of safety. As fear increases, society makes ever-larger concessions. If a negative trend in social mood is large enough, blatantly authoritarian leaders emerge and promise security. They attract support as well as strident opposition. In most cases, we can’t say which side will ultimately prevail. …
Here are several specific forecasts and examples that typify the authoritarian trend generated by the deepening bear in mood:
Governments will shut down sections of the Internet
A government that feels threatened by its citizens usually clamps down on the information flow. This makes the Internet a prime authoritarian/anti-authoritarian battleground. In November 2009, the Italian Interior Ministry requested that Google, owner of YouTube, remove a video showing high-school boys in Turin, Italy, taunting a boy with a mental disability. Google complied rapidly, but on February 24, 2010, Italy convicted three of the company’s executives for violating Italy’s privacy laws. The judgment “could have sweeping implications worldwide for Internet freedom” by setting a new precedent for regulation and control of the Internet, according to The New York Times.
… Reliance on indebted governments will become a flashpoint in the authoritarian debate
Americans’ reliance on government is at an all-time high, according to The Washington Times (March 2): “For the first time since the Great Depression, Americans took more aid from the government than they paid in taxes.” The extreme optimism of a Grand Supercycle peak in social mood generated huge, unsustainable government spending in many countries. That debt is fueling anger as the bear market progresses. Many citizens already feel dependent on the government and vulnerable to its every decision. Such social stresses will impel both authoritarian policies and opposition to them.
In the remainder of this thirteen-page article, author Alan Hall:
- Provides six more specific forecasts for the road ahead
- Explains the psychological source of authoritarian desire
- And introduces the Socionomic Nolan Chart – our adaptation of Nolan’s political dynamics diagram – to illustrate how a bearish mood can push a society with very low interest in authoritarianism into a significant authoritarian/anti-authoritarian conflict
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The Socionomist is designed to help readers understand and anticipate waves of social mood. We also present the latest essays in the field of socionomics, the study of social mood; we anticipate that many of the hypotheses will be subjected to scientific testing in future scholarly studies.
The Socionomist is published by Elliott Wave International and the Socionomics Institute, Robert R. Prechter, Jr., president; Mark Almand, director. Staff Writers: Alan Hall, Chuck Thompson, Robert Folsom. Editorial Direction: Dave Allman, Mark Almand, Pete Kendall. Cover Design: Eliot Bern. Production: Chuck Thompson. Proofreader: Ben Hall. Content Coordination: Astra Lureman. We are always interested in guest submissions. Please email manuscripts and proposals to Chuck Thompson via email@example.com.
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Most economists, historians and sociologists presume that events determine society’s mood. But socionomics hypothesizes the opposite: that social mood determines the character of social events. The events of history—such as investment booms and busts, political events, macroeconomic trends and even peace and war—are the products of a naturally occurring pattern of social-mood fluctuation. Such events, therefore, are not randomly distributed, as is commonly believed, but are in fact probabilistically predictable. Socionomics also posits that the stock market is the best available meter of a society’s aggregate mood, that news is irrelevant to social mood, and that financial and economic decision-making are fundamentally different in that financial decisions are motivated by the herding impulse while economic choices are guided by supply and demand. For more information about socionomic theory, see (1) the text, The Wave Principle of Human Social Behavior © 1999, by Robert Prechter; (2) the introductory documentary History's Hidden Engine; (3) the video Toward a New Science of Social Prediction, Prechter’s 2004 speech before the London School of Economics in which he presents evidence to support his socionomic hypothesis; and (4) the Socionomics Institute’s website, www.socionomics.net. At no time will the Socionomics Institute make specific recommendations about a course of action for any specific person, and at no time may a reader, caller or viewer be justified in inferring that any such advice is intended.